Prediction: The Recession is Ending

Today we lost an hour but we say we “sprung forward” in time. There’s a big difference in perception.

In fact, when you ask someone today how they feel to loose an hour, and you’ll get negative responses. But ask them if they love having more daylight and the positive remarks will follow. (Do I need to add here — that we have about the same amount of daylight today as we did yesterday…)

So why the difference? The facts say that on this day, there’s a 5% increase in heart attacks because of the lack of sleep. And other studies say that the power we’re supposed to save (with Daylight Savings Time) never really happens. In fact, it seems like the benefits are only psychological.

But psychology is powerful!

Of course, we’re experiencing spring-like temperatures today in our area, but when I walked outside at 7:30pm, the sun was still up, it was still warm and I think I almost felt better. All because the time changed.

People (and I am one of them, of course) are such a weird bunch. Even if all the research, numbers and information seems to be negative, we can easily be swayed to the “positive” simply by past experience and how we feel. Think about it, every year after the time changes, spring arrives. Grass, birds, warmth, etc. So we say, bring the time change on! Cause/Effect convinces us again.

So, when it comes to the economy. I’m ready to make a prediction. It’s going to get better.

I’m at a point that I don’t care that the stock market has been bad (especially this past week), our President says it’s going to get worse with every breath, and “the experts” say that it’ll take at least a year for recovery. It seems that all the facts are negative.

But I say, we are going to start seeing recovery in the next few weeks.

Why? Not because I’m an economist or even an active investor. But I am a consumer and I’m old enough to people-watch and see how most North Americans react and respond.

The signs for recovery I see are:

1. Each time I’ve been to the mall recently I’ve noticed two things: There’s a bunch of people there and everything is priced incredibly low.
2. We’re a consumer society and people have pent-up demand. And for most people, their salaries haven’t been reduced in the past year.
3. People are paying off debt and psychologically they are feeling better doing this.
4. Spring is just around the corner. And people just “feel better” once winter is over.

Also, our business is busy with companies preparing marketing materials (websites, printed materials and communication strategies). I think that some how, we are sensing that recovery is going to happen soon.

I guess I’ll be able to see if I’m right in the next few weeks. Stay tuned. In the meantime, get some extra sleep tonight — I wouldn’t want you to have a heart attack.